500 - 599
All control agencies will become less effective.
Laws and law-enforcement will become less effective.
Governments, and the function of government, will become less effective.
Proliferation of information will create a 'noise' factor which will tend to 'fudge' prioration, relevance, validity and verity.
The entertainment aspect of communications will tend to obscure the factual aspect of communications.
So many different viewpoints will be presented that people will become more cynical with regard to the truth. The common stance, with regard to information, will be that of the cynic who asks ... 'what is the truth, anyway!: Nobody knows the truth!'
Rapid change and natural disasters render governments increasingly ineffective. Long on talk and short on performance, governments will be seen to be Claytons governments.
As processes and tasks become automated, the number of jobs is reduced, and total wages are reduced, and total consumer demand is reduced, and sales are reduced, and production is reduced.
As total personal income is reduced and as total sales are reduced, the tax-base is reduced and government income is reduced.
As government income is reduced, government expenditure comes under pressure. Reductions to unemployment benefits and welfare benefits are opposed by the voting public. Governments come under strong political pressure to spend more than they receive.
Government budget deficits increase and government borrowings increase and rates of inflation increase.
More and more countries default on repayment of their loans.
Governments find it more and more difficult to refinance old loans and to finance new loans.
The number and frequency of business failures increases.
Lenders lose heavily, as their debtors default on loan repayments.
As businesses fail and profits fall, stock and share prices fall.
The number of bank failures increases.
As consumer demand drops, world trade declines.
As world trade declines, countries raise import barriers to protect their local industries.
Business and investment risks increase.
Property, and all asset values generally, decrease.
People with money are less inclined to take risks: Investors choose safe investments.
A high value is placed on present enjoyment/spending, as compared to future enjoyment/spending: Liquidity preference increases: Interest rates increase.
Dealing in futures carries higher risks.
Lawlessness and general anarchy increase, worldwide.
Rapidly changing events preclude effective control: Governments despair of achieving effective control.
Parliamentarians will increasingly be seen as a minority power group which serves its own interests before the interests of the people.
Voter party-loyalty becomes fragile; party support changes more rapidly; new governments lose support quickly.
Too many laws create 'noise': The legal tangle becomes more confusing. There is less common understanding of law and less public respect for law.
As enforcement of law becomes less effective, laws tend to become more indicative and less mandatory ... more 'you should', rather than 'you shall'.
Governments tend to levy taxes more on sales and imports, and less on income. Equitable taxation of income becomes increasingly difficult.
People generally become more distrustful of 'expert' or 'authoritative' views, on anything and everything. They rely more on their own reality ... that is, on their own personal experience.
Credit ratings fall generally and lenders become very careful. Loans are more difficult to obtain.
There will be greater emphasis on group behaviour. More people will join groups, for both protection and enjoyment.
More groups will have an official or unofficial 'muscle' element, for protection of their members.
The decline of effective government is accompanied by an increase of social anarchy. The social counterparts of physical chaos are lawlessness, liberty and economic 'laissez faire'.
Under conditions of social anarchy, the strong become wealthier and the weak become poorer. The rich/poor gap will widen.
As it becomes more difficult to survive, people become more pragmatic and less idealistic.
The 'Green' movement loses ground. Most communities cannot afford the costs of environmental protection. The gap, between 'greenies' and pragmatists, widens.
Properties exposed to violence become reduced in market value.
Enclave communities develop which provide security fencing and guard patrols.
Security becomes an important aspect of house design and location.
In conditions of social and physical chaos, stance strategy becomes supremely important to survival.
Final phase chaos calls for seven essential elements of strategic stance, namely:
- 1. Knowledge of macro trends.
- 2. High creative intelligence capability.
- 3. Good early-warning capability.
- 4. Maximum flexibility.
- 5. Strong asset position.
- 6. Occupation of strategic high ground.
- 7. Low risk exposure.
Knowledge of macro trends calls for familiarity with, and usage of, a macro model (or models), such as this one.
Each operating unit should have a high 'creative intelligence' to 'other assets' ratio: Its major asset should be creative intelligence ... with emphasis on forecasting and strategy.
Each operating unit should always be on the 'qui vive' ready to receive and react instantly to early warning data.
Maximum flexibility calls for high liquidity; short-term payback investments; low sunk-costs; zero future commitments; very low liabilities; high manoeuvrability and high readiness.
The asset position should be strong and unencumbered and readily realisable, without risk of quick-sale loss.
An operating unit should occupy the strategic high ground at all times, seeking:
- Optimum prioration.
- Methods and skills.
- Choice of products.
- Choice of customers.
Low risk exposure involves constant screening-out of risk and low-profit elements, with regard to:
- Macro trends.
- Current information.
- Changing conditions.
- Contractual commitments.
- Competitive pressures.
- Risky projects.
- Doubtful products.
- Screening should be intelligent, decisive and fast.
The most important aspect of management is strategy and strategic stance.
Increasing marketing costs erode profit margins.
Shrewd businessmen move away from dealing in commodities which are highly competitive.
Shrewd businessmen seek quasi-monopoly, high-profit products and markets.
Large business corporations tend to be too inflexible and too unweildy to cope with rapidly changing conditions.
Successful businesses tend to be centred about capable individual entrepreneurs who are unfettered by commitments and shareholders.
Political and economic power groups (hegemonies) decline in strength and influence.
Insurance companies face higher claims and lose profitability: Many insurance companies collapse.
Uncertainty becomes paramount.
The incidence of gambling increases.
Brigandage and piracy increase.
Products proliferate and the rates of obsolescence increase and resale values decrease.
The value of a human life becomes relative to wealth and influence.
All aspects of life become more liberalised: People reject formal and cultural restraints.
Transport risks and costs increase.
Travel involves greater risks.
Tourism will decrease.
Risk avoidance becomes a top priority.
Nuclear weapons increase in availability and decrease in price.
Nuclear weapons come into more general use, for deterrence, defence, offence and extortion.
Natural disasters increase in number and severity, causing loss of life and economic disruption.
Increasingly, people live for the day and the hour.
Drug and alcohol consumption increases.
Reliance on entertainment and diversion increases.
Government services decline.
Established, authoritarian institutions become discredited.
Many farmers leave their properties, as a consequence of droughts and other disasters.
Average real-incomes, and per-capita purchasing power, will trend downwards.
Social divisiveness increases and sense of nationality, and national pride, decreases. 'Every man for himself' becomes the rule of life.
Emphasis on TV, videos, music and entertainment generally, will increase.
People, in the West, will become less responsive to persuasion and to political leadership.
Profits and dividends will decrease generally, as a % of capital invested.
Business assets generally will decrease in value.
Although interest rates will increase, savings and investment will decline.
Increased volcanism will cause major climatic changes worldwide ... with increased cold, frost, storms, crop-failures, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and other disasters.
Shortly after the turn of the century, harmful levels of surface radiation will cause large numbers of people to live in underground enclaves.
There are two main categories of information, namely, ordered information and disordered information. Ordered information is clear and unambiguous ... whereas disordered information is confused and ambiguous. The first is associated with control, and the second with chaos. As entropy speeds up, the first decreases and the second increases.
While anarchy will become more general, education systems will continue to teach people how to cope with conditions of order, and not how to cope with conditions of anarchy.
A gathering of people is, at once, a tensing and an obstacle ... an impedance of the free flow of energy. The impedance raises the frequency of energy, the heat-level, the tension and the excitement.
We may become aware of a specific quality by:
- (a) Becoming aware of its opposite quality.
- (b) Becoming aware of a closely related quality.
- (c) Becoming aware of the Absolute ... that is, all quality.
- (d) Undergoing experiences which concentrate our attention upon the specific quality or upon the opposite of the specific quality or upon its absence.
An effective ploy, by which quality may be realised, is to create a quality void or sink. Another ploy is to obstruct or frustrate the satisfaction of needs. The withholding of job opportunities, via automation, evokes and enhances qualities by both of these ploys.
To provide by automation a means of satisfying most human needs, would reduce rather than enhance our progress to self-realisation. Needs assist self-realisation only if they are not easily satisfied. A stick is needed to keep the carrot away from the donkey.
To be released from the 'conveyor belt' of paid duties provides us with motivations and the opportunities of unfettered freedom.
Creativity issues more often from conditions of want than from conditions of satiation.
We humans are essentially builders: We beaver away, building our universes with the bricks of our truths and the cement of our wills ... and we send our pioneers into the void to build, where none have been before.
One activity creates another: One unit of work creates more units of work.
Under conditions of increasing social entropy, each member of a society becomes more autonomous and self-determining, and less subject to a hierarchy of control.
Under conditions of increasing social entropy, the legitimacy of social control is called increasingly to question ... and the hierarchy of control becomes increasingly alienated from the majority of society.
In communication theory, uncertainty associated with the nature of a situation (H) is the entropy of the information about the particular situation. A high level of uncertainty equates a high level of entropy.