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Network Propositions
500 - 599


500
All control agencies will become less effective.


501
Laws and law-enforcement will become less effective.


502
Governments, and the function of government, will become less effective.


503
Proliferation of information will create a 'noise' factor which will tend to 'fudge' prioration, relevance, validity and verity.


504
The entertainment aspect of communications will tend to obscure the factual aspect of communications.


505
So many different viewpoints will be presented that people will become more cynical with regard to the truth. The common stance, with regard to information, will be that of the cynic who asks ... 'what is the truth, anyway!: Nobody knows the truth!'


506
Rapid change and natural disasters render governments increasingly ineffective. Long on talk and short on performance, governments will be seen to be Claytons governments.


507
As processes and tasks become automated, the number of jobs is reduced, and total wages are reduced, and total consumer demand is reduced, and sales are reduced, and production is reduced.


508
As total personal income is reduced and as total sales are reduced, the tax-base is reduced and government income is reduced.


509
As government income is reduced, government expenditure comes under pressure. Reductions to unemployment benefits and welfare benefits are opposed by the voting public. Governments come under strong political pressure to spend more than they receive.


510
Government budget deficits increase and government borrowings increase and rates of inflation increase.


511
More and more countries default on repayment of their loans.


512
Governments find it more and more difficult to refinance old loans and to finance new loans.


513
The number and frequency of business failures increases.


514
Lenders lose heavily, as their debtors default on loan repayments.


515
As businesses fail and profits fall, stock and share prices fall.


516
The number of bank failures increases.


517
As consumer demand drops, world trade declines.


518
As world trade declines, countries raise import barriers to protect their local industries.


519
Business and investment risks increase.


520
Property, and all asset values generally, decrease.


521
People with money are less inclined to take risks: Investors choose safe investments.


522
A high value is placed on present enjoyment/spending, as compared to future enjoyment/spending: Liquidity preference increases: Interest rates increase.


523
Dealing in futures carries higher risks.


524
Lawlessness and general anarchy increase, worldwide.


525
Rapidly changing events preclude effective control: Governments despair of achieving effective control.


526
Parliamentarians will increasingly be seen as a minority power group which serves its own interests before the interests of the people.


527
Voter party-loyalty becomes fragile; party support changes more rapidly; new governments lose support quickly.


528
Too many laws create 'noise': The legal tangle becomes more confusing. There is less common understanding of law and less public respect for law.


529
As enforcement of law becomes less effective, laws tend to become more indicative and less mandatory ... more 'you should', rather than 'you shall'.


530
Governments tend to levy taxes more on sales and imports, and less on income. Equitable taxation of income becomes increasingly difficult.


531
People generally become more distrustful of 'expert' or 'authoritative' views, on anything and everything. They rely more on their own reality ... that is, on their own personal experience.


532
Credit ratings fall generally and lenders become very careful. Loans are more difficult to obtain.


533
There will be greater emphasis on group behaviour. More people will join groups, for both protection and enjoyment.


534
More groups will have an official or unofficial 'muscle' element, for protection of their members.


535
The decline of effective government is accompanied by an increase of social anarchy. The social counterparts of physical chaos are lawlessness, liberty and economic 'laissez faire'.


536
Under conditions of social anarchy, the strong become wealthier and the weak become poorer. The rich/poor gap will widen.


537
As it becomes more difficult to survive, people become more pragmatic and less idealistic.


538
The 'Green' movement loses ground. Most communities cannot afford the costs of environmental protection. The gap, between 'greenies' and pragmatists, widens.


539
Properties exposed to violence become reduced in market value.


540
Enclave communities develop which provide security fencing and guard patrols.


541
Security becomes an important aspect of house design and location.


542
In conditions of social and physical chaos, stance strategy becomes supremely important to survival.


543
Final phase chaos calls for seven essential elements of strategic stance, namely:


544
Knowledge of macro trends calls for familiarity with, and usage of, a macro model (or models), such as this one.


545
Each operating unit should have a high 'creative intelligence' to 'other assets' ratio: Its major asset should be creative intelligence ... with emphasis on forecasting and strategy.


546
Each operating unit should always be on the 'qui vive' ready to receive and react instantly to early warning data.


547
Maximum flexibility calls for high liquidity; short-term payback investments; low sunk-costs; zero future commitments; very low liabilities; high manoeuvrability and high readiness.


548
The asset position should be strong and unencumbered and readily realisable, without risk of quick-sale loss.


549
An operating unit should occupy the strategic high ground at all times, seeking:


550
Low risk exposure involves constant screening-out of risk and low-profit elements, with regard to:


551
The most important aspect of management is strategy and strategic stance.


552
Increasing marketing costs erode profit margins.


553
Shrewd businessmen move away from dealing in commodities which are highly competitive.


554
Shrewd businessmen seek quasi-monopoly, high-profit products and markets.


555
Large business corporations tend to be too inflexible and too unweildy to cope with rapidly changing conditions.


556
Successful businesses tend to be centred about capable individual entrepreneurs who are unfettered by commitments and shareholders.


557
Political and economic power groups (hegemonies) decline in strength and influence.


558
Insurance companies face higher claims and lose profitability: Many insurance companies collapse.


559
Uncertainty becomes paramount.


560
The incidence of gambling increases.


561
Brigandage and piracy increase.


562
Products proliferate and the rates of obsolescence increase and resale values decrease.


563
The value of a human life becomes relative to wealth and influence.


564
All aspects of life become more liberalised: People reject formal and cultural restraints.


565
Transport risks and costs increase.


566
Travel involves greater risks.


567
Tourism will decrease.


568
Risk avoidance becomes a top priority.


569
Nuclear weapons increase in availability and decrease in price.


570
Nuclear weapons come into more general use, for deterrence, defence, offence and extortion.


571
Natural disasters increase in number and severity, causing loss of life and economic disruption.


572
Increasingly, people live for the day and the hour.


573
Drug and alcohol consumption increases.


574
Reliance on entertainment and diversion increases.


575
Government services decline.


576
Established, authoritarian institutions become discredited.


577
Many farmers leave their properties, as a consequence of droughts and other disasters.


578
Average real-incomes, and per-capita purchasing power, will trend downwards.


579
Social divisiveness increases and sense of nationality, and national pride, decreases. 'Every man for himself' becomes the rule of life.


580
Emphasis on TV, videos, music and entertainment generally, will increase.


581
People, in the West, will become less responsive to persuasion and to political leadership.


582
Profits and dividends will decrease generally, as a % of capital invested.


583
Business assets generally will decrease in value.


584
Although interest rates will increase, savings and investment will decline.


585
Increased volcanism will cause major climatic changes worldwide ... with increased cold, frost, storms, crop-failures, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and other disasters.


586
Shortly after the turn of the century, harmful levels of surface radiation will cause large numbers of people to live in underground enclaves.


587
There are two main categories of information, namely, ordered information and disordered information. Ordered information is clear and unambiguous ... whereas disordered information is confused and ambiguous. The first is associated with control, and the second with chaos. As entropy speeds up, the first decreases and the second increases.


588
While anarchy will become more general, education systems will continue to teach people how to cope with conditions of order, and not how to cope with conditions of anarchy.


589
A gathering of people is, at once, a tensing and an obstacle ... an impedance of the free flow of energy. The impedance raises the frequency of energy, the heat-level, the tension and the excitement.


590
We may become aware of a specific quality by:


591
An effective ploy, by which quality may be realised, is to create a quality void or sink. Another ploy is to obstruct or frustrate the satisfaction of needs. The withholding of job opportunities, via automation, evokes and enhances qualities by both of these ploys.


592
To provide by automation a means of satisfying most human needs, would reduce rather than enhance our progress to self-realisation. Needs assist self-realisation only if they are not easily satisfied. A stick is needed to keep the carrot away from the donkey.


593
To be released from the 'conveyor belt' of paid duties provides us with motivations and the opportunities of unfettered freedom.


594
Creativity issues more often from conditions of want than from conditions of satiation.


595
We humans are essentially builders: We beaver away, building our universes with the bricks of our truths and the cement of our wills ... and we send our pioneers into the void to build, where none have been before.


596
One activity creates another: One unit of work creates more units of work.


597
Under conditions of increasing social entropy, each member of a society becomes more autonomous and self-determining, and less subject to a hierarchy of control.


598
Under conditions of increasing social entropy, the legitimacy of social control is called increasingly to question ... and the hierarchy of control becomes increasingly alienated from the majority of society.


599
In communication theory, uncertainty associated with the nature of a situation (H) is the entropy of the information about the particular situation. A high level of uncertainty equates a high level of entropy.


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