www.NormanSpencer.co.nz /  Prediction Science /  The Network Propositions / 800-859
Previous Page     Next Page     INDEX to the Network Propositions     Feedback

Network Propositions
800 - 859


800
As controls dissipate universally, the powers of centralised government decline within each country.


801
Each country becomes more pre-occupied with its own internal problems, and less pre-occupied with international affairs.


802
The power status, of large countries, tends to decline and the super-power era comes to an end.


803
The political use of force and violence proves to be counterproductive.


804
The delegation of political power by the people, to representatives, proves to be a failed process. The people realise this and they no longer trust representatives to govern on their behalf.


805
The people become more conscious of their de facto power. Governments discover that they are no longer able to act against the will and interests of the people ... and that they use force against the people at their peril.


806
The United States of America peaks as a world power and, from 1991, is no longer able financially to sustain a superpower and global policeman role.


807
The United States economy declines by reason of:


808
From 1992, the UK will move progressively away from political and monetary European union.


809
The British Commonwealth becomes history.


810
The dissolution of the USSR and the US v EEC trade stand-off cause the US to withdraw from its Atlantic Treaty commitments.


811
Communism ceases to be a world threat to democracy and to capitalism.


812
The CIS confederation of ex-USSR states will become increasingly ineffective.


813
Jingoistic nationalism decreases worldwide: People become pre-occupied with local issues and the problems of day to day living.


814
A citizen's democratic vote means less and less to the average person, as the process of democratic representation fails to deliver worthwhile benefits to the people.


815
A few popular governments oust monarchies in the Middle East, but fail to deliver benefits to the people.


816
The arab world tends to divide into Pan-Islam and Western factions.


817
Some US forces (mainly naval) will remain in the middle East, on a semi-permanent basis.


818
Many nations will 'cell-split' into smaller ethnic groups.


819
Areas of anarchy will increase in numbers and extent. Order-vacuums will proliferate, worldwide.


820
Civil wars, in Eastern Europe and the ex-USSR states, will cause shifts of large populations into western Europe.


821
International support, for US actions and policies in the Middle East, will decline.


822
Russia will experience very high inflation; industrial obsolescence, mismanagement and disorganisation; declining per capita incomes; political ineffectiveness and public unrest.


823
Theocratic political movements will gain more influence in the Middle East.


824
The United Nations will be seen increasingly as an agency of USA. Some countries will withdraw from the UN.


825
Ever more nations will achieve nuclear capability.


826
There will be an increasing risk that nuclear weapons will be used in wars between states, but not by major powers.


827
World power alignments will change and political power will become more widely distributed.


828
Lawlessness will increase on the high seas.


829
Israel-US relations weaken: US support to Israel decreases.


830
The Middle East will continue to be a trouble and conflict zone.


831
The new democrat President will move to reduce US involvement in Middle East affairs.


832
With a downturn in mining and in sheep farming, the Australian economy will be depressed. The NZ economy will recess to a lesser extent and will show more resilience.


833
World recession will have an adverse effect on Japan's export trade. Japan's economic power peaked in 1990. During the early 19901s, Japanese property values will fall sharply, banks will fail and share values will drop.


834
South Africa will show signs of ultimate partitioning into Northern (Boer), Eastern (Natal-Zulu) and Southern (Cape) states ... but violence will continue.


835
Civil wars, famine and disease will plague the major part of the African continent.


836
Central and South American countries will become further depressed, economically and socially.


837
The Indian sub-continent will suffer from natural disasters, social conflict, political upheavals and economic problems.


838
Worldwide, bureaucracies will become less effective and more unpopular. By reason of their inflexibility, they will fail to cope with the increasing rate of change.


839
World population estimates are as follows:

Year Population (billions)
1920 1.8
1930 2.0
1940 2.2
1950 2.5
1960 3.0
1970 3.6
1980 4.3
1990 5.1
2000 5.8
2010 5.0
2020 0.0

Population peaks at 5.8 in year 2000.


840
The trend away from authoritarian democracy to people's democracy will bring proportional representation into favour.


841
In the democracies, the people will trust their governments less and delegate less power to them.


842
Orthodox economics deals with neat, over-simplified abstractions, while avoiding examination of the real.


843
Most economic theories have a high rational input and a low existential input.


844
As economics deals only with impersonal data, it cannot pretend to understand or improve the personal condition of individual members of society.


845
Mankind's economic attitudes are, mostly, not calculated and rational but dictated by the institutions and constraints under which men live.


846
What mankind consumes is determined not so much by the inherent value of goods, as by the social standing derived from their consumption.


847
Mindless institutions often dominate over reason, in human affairs.


848
Property and lack of property are the basic categories of all class situations.


849
As to their discovery, hypotheses rely largely on insights and intuition: As to their justification, they rely largely on reasoning, experimentation, pragmatic efficacy, authority, custom and rhetoric. Scientific methods have much to do with justification and very little to do with discovery ... certainly very little to do with major discoveries.


850
No government can legislate effectively against civil disobedience: The human right of freedom includes the right of individuals to obey or disobey.


851
As entropy increases, the incidence of confusing news will increase. As a consequence, interpretive journalism will become ever more important to society. Without seeking it, journalism will find itself very much in a leading role.


852
Increasingly, it will be realised that leadership of the people belongs to the people, and that only they can bestow it, and that it is held in trust for them, and that they can recall it at any time. It will be seen that our present system does not always select, as leaders, those which the people prefer ... and thus we may not have true leadership. Any system, which falsifies leadership by imposing upon the people leaders who are not of their choice, undermines democracy and makes a mockery of democracy. It is central and essential to the concept of democracy that the leader of a society shall always be the person who is preferred as leader by the majority of the people.


853
It is of supreme importance that each of us should know that he or she is a child of the Absolute and is a sovereign and independent being.


854
It is helpful to a species to have confidence and certainty concerning its nature and destiny; concerning its powers and its compassions; and concerning its purposes and realities.


855
The term 'transfinite' is particularly apt, as far as the human race is concerned ... for we straddle, as it were, both the finite and the infinite. All of our qualities are infinite but we have often expressed them and perceived them as finite. Now that we are in the process of discovering the non-finite aspects of our being, our state of awareness may be more accurately described as transfinite rather than as finite.


856
Most scientists pride themselves on their empirical precision and objectivity. However, concentration on precision and objectivity excludes these scientists from aspects of existence which are imprecise and unobjective. There is now a growing body of opinion that existence is essentially infinite and that most of it may be empirically unaccessible. As a consequence, the sphere of influence of empirical scientists is diminishing. Also, many basic assumptions of empirical scientists are now being challenged, as unproven. Undoubtedly, much work of empirical scientists is valuable but we should not see their approach to knowledge as the only approach nor, necessarily, as the best approach.


857
We should let many witnesses bear account of the truth (and, among these witnesses empiricists but others also), that all witnesses may be fully tested and that none be overbearing ... and we should recognise that all viewpoints are 'cameras' upon the truth ... and that, the more there are, the more of the truth is likely to be revealed.


858
We should not accept arguments and opinions solely because they are put forward by experts ... and we should examine the assumptions of experts closely before accepting conclusions based upon them.


859
When common sense differs from expert opinion, the course of common sense should be followed. The whole truth is not known to specialists and truth is often better known to the common sense of the people.


Previous Page     Next Page     INDEX to the Network Propositions     Feedback
www.NormanSpencer.co.nz /  Prediction Science /  The Network Propositions / 800-859