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Network Propositions
2700 - 2788


2700
The influence of volcanism-related atmospheric veil effects provides the setting for widespread and severe frost damage.


2701
The mass of small silicates, which reach and remain in stratosphere, may be small compared with the mass of sulphur injected to stratosphere veil by volcanism.


2702
The primary volcanism atmospheric effects are caused by injections of sulphur into the stratospheric veil. This becomes converted to sulphuric acid and dominates the veil, as the aerosol with greatest influence upon climate.


2703
Smaller sulphur-rich explosions, such as those of Agung (1963) and Fuego(1974), may have ejected material which was relatively rich in sulphur-dioxide and hydro-chloride.


2704
The high incidence of sulphur-dioxide in the Venusian atmosphere probably indicates that great volcanic activity has occurred in Venus' past. Venusian clouds are a water solution of sulphuric acid.


2705
It is estimated that the mass of sulphur injected into atmosphere by Fuego(1974) was one to two magnitudes greater than the mass of silicates injected ... and the ensuing stratospheric sulphate layer probably persisted for several years.


2706
There has been a tendency to relate estimates of volcanic volatile emissions to the mass of erupting magma and to underestimate the mass/volume of volatiles.


2707
The quantity of sulphur injected into stratosphere is more important, from the climatic point of view, than the overall magnitude of eruptions.


2708
Even currently, much significant volcanic activity goes unreported.


2709
There is a good general correlation between periods of below-average volcanism and above-average temperatures.


2710
In historically recent times, the quietest period of volcanism was from 1100-1250AD: This is known as the medieval warm period.


2711
The most active recent periods were 1250-1500AD and 15501700AD, and these periods probably contributed importantly to the Little Ice Age.


2712
The burning of fossil fuels and timber may, via the Greenhouse effects, serve to partially offset the cooling effects of volcanism.


2713
Water deficiency has brought starvation to large numbers of Africans in the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.


2714
The importance of the climatic factor in human history has not been sufficiently recognised, nor have climatic aspects been sufficiently analysed. Much research remains to be done in connection with socio-historical climatology.


2715
It is now recognised that the more efficient farming methods, which are finely tuned to certain normal weather conditions, may result in severe production decreases when weather conditions vary from the assumed norm.


2716
Recent research indicates that decreased insolation, due to greater volcanic dust and sulphur in stratosphere, tends to override and dominate over Greenhouse effects.


2717
In periods of average or above average levels of volcanic sulphur emissions, there is likely to be a net cooling effect, even given present high levels of man-created carbon-dioxide emissions.


2718
The west and east Antarctic ice sheets are presently rather unstable. If, by reason of underlying meltwater, the ice sheets start to slide, the climate of the southern hemisphere would be cooled rather drastically ... and sea levels may then rise.


2719
The coincidence of the growing ozone hole over Antarctica and the more equatorial orientation of sulphur and dust volcanic emissions (causing reduced insolation), may have the effect of reducing the latitudinal temperature differentials.


2720
Many of the world's major grain crops are sensitive to moderate drops of average temperature. Wheat production in Canada would probably be eliminated by a decrease of 3 degrees C in average temperature. Rice is most sensitive to drops of temperature: If temperatures fall below 15 degrees C, at critical growing periods, rice grains will not form.


2721
The largest earthquakes of all occur along the shallow dipping faults of subduction zones.


2722
Unusual, disturbed animal behaviour has often been observed before large earthquakes.


2723
Japanese seismologists have predicted a large and damaging earthquake in the Suruga Trough south-east segment of the subduction zone off the Honshu coast.


2724
The largest known eruption of the past 2000 years was at Taupo, New Zealand. At about 150AD, approximately six cubic miles of ignimbrite debris were ejected, to cover over 10,000 square miles of New Zealand's North Island with an average four inches, or thereabouts, of volcanic deposits. The magma froth poured out at a speed sufficient to climb ridges 1,000 metres higher than source height.


2725
The upper atmosphere is very sensitive to dust. It has been calculated that a reduction in solar radiation by 20% would require only 1/1600 of a cubic mile of very fine dust in upper atmosphere. If this amount was to be continually supplied into atmosphere every two years, the average mean temperature of the troposphere would decrease by approximately 5 degrees C. Of course, not only volcanoes but also nuclear explosions may increase the levels of dust in atmosphere: The effects of nuclear winters are mentioned elsewhere.


2726
In most countries (excluding NZ, USA, Canada and Australia) there is less than one year's food supply available at any time.


2727
A 3 to 4 degrees C average temperature decrease would seriously reduce rice harvests, and larger decreases would eliminate the Japanese rice production.


2728
Small temperature changes may destroy crops through frost damage. In 1816, Mt. Tambora dust clouds caused average summer temperatures in N.E. USA, Canada, and W. Europe, to drop by 1-2 degrees C. Frosts May-August 1816 eliminated nearly all maize production and much of the Canadian wheat crop. Frosts caused crop failures in France and Switzerland.


2729
A 1C degree average temperature drop in the latter part of the 17th century reduced growing seasons by up to a month, causing grain yields to fall by up to 75% in parts of Europe.


2730
Pasture growth occurs at all temperatures above 5.5 degrees C.


2731
Crops sensitive to unseasonal frost include wheat, maize and potatoes.


2732
A 1 degree C drop in the average overnight low temperature could add 15-30 days to the frost-risk period in cool NZ South Island locations, and 40-50 days in warmer North Island locations.


2733
The effects of a major nuclear war could include the following:


2734
With the disintegration of the USSR, the risks of a major nuclear war have decreased enormously. However, nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons technology are more freely available, and more and more nations are becoming nuclear-capable.


2735
There are risks associated with the experimental detonation of nuclear devices. Underground nuclear explosions, in resistant solid-rock formations, may cause the reversion of some mass to singularity, with unknown geophysical consequences.


2736
Nuclear fusion research, itself, involves high risks in respect of accidental initiation of uncontrollable chain-reactions. Research is being carried out, involving ever higher temperatures, approaching those of the 'big bang'. The risks arise from uncertainty concerning a critical temperature, which may result in chain-reactive conversion of matter to singularity.


2737
Nuclear scientists, in research establishments, take unknown risks without any democratic mandate to do so. Their authority derives from cliques of governmental officialdom. High risks to society are taken without the cognisance and prior approval of the general membership of society.


2738
There are risks of nuclear detonations in respect of wars between states, particularly in 'backs to the wall' or 'last ditch' situations, where a country or nation sees itself as having no other chance of survival.


2739
There are also risks of nuclear detonations in respect of:


2740
There are high risks of dangerous radiation leakages. A large number of nuclear power plants, particularly in the former USSR and other countries of eastern Europe, are listed as dangerous to public life and health. Some of these have been poorly designed and, although still in service, are technically obsolete. Others are dangerous by reason of sub-standard staffing and maintenance.


2741
There are also risks of dangerous radiation leakages from radioactive wastes, which have not been destroyed or safely stored.


2742
As Earth's mass is 6.0 by 10 to the power of 21 tonnes and as the mass of the Earth's atmosphere is 5.6 by 10 to the power of 15 tonnes, the mass of Earth is one million times greater than the mass of its atmosphere.


2743
As chlorine is one of the most abundant trace chemicals in the atmosphere, we should question whether so much of the blame, for ozone destruction, should be levelled at CFC's.


2744
It is estimated that Antarctica's Mt. Erebus (which has been in active cycle since 1972) ejects over 1,000 tonnes of chlorine into atmosphere each day. (Note: 1983 data).


2745
There is some evidence that variations in the ozone layer may be related to the eleven-year cycle of solar activity.


2746
Based on the costs of Du Pont's 'Suva', alternatives to CFC's may be priced 10 times higher.


2747
The cost of banning CFC's and other halogenated chemicals may prove to be prohibitive. It is a matter of concern that additional refrigerator costs may result in a reduction of refrigeration in areas where it is needed to prevent food-borne diseases.


2748
The propositional data of this network, taken as a whole, indicates that caution should be exercised before engaging in very costly eco-projects, which may later prove to be ill-advised or even futile.


2749
Bromine is up to 100 times more effective than chlorine in destroying ozone ... and over 60,000 tonnes of methyl bromide is used, as pesticides, each year by fruit and vegetable growers.


2750
Rising levels of carbon dioxide may also contribute to ozone depletion. Global warming in the lower atmosphere means cooling in the upper atmosphere, where ice crystals assist in the formation of chlorine radicals.


2751
The Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991 is estimated to have injected 15-20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into atmosphere. This, by forming sulphuric acid, encourages the development of chlorine radicals. Volcanoes also produce large quantities of chlorine. Volcanism-sourced chlorine and sulphur dioxide (the one directly and the other indirectly) are major causes of ozone depletion.


2752
It has been estimated that approximately 80% of Earth's volcanic activity takes place underwater, at oceanic construction ridges.


2753
The U.S. Geological Survey has listed 44 sites in USA which have the potential to erupt.


2754
As magma rises, the proportion of water vapour decreases and other gases increase ... signalling a possible explosive eruption.


2755
From 1631 to 1944, Vesuvius never went more than seven years without an eruption: Now, nearly 50 years have passed without an eruption, and long inactive periods have usually been followed by high explosivity.


2756
The Iwo Jima caldera is one of the most restless in the world. The island is being elevated at about one foot a year.


2757
An increase of global volcanism has a cooling effect on the Earth's atmosphere ... and a major increase would have a major cooling effect. It is paradoxical that a heating-up of the Earth's crust is accompanied by a cooling of the atmosphere.


2758
Quaternary volcanism has been the primary cause of the quaternary ice-ages.


2759
Over the past 180 million years, the Earth's surface has increased in area from 135 to 510 million square kilometres (ref. prop. 919) and this expansion has been characterised by enormous levels of volcanic activity, which have progressively reduced the global mean air temperature.


2760
During the quaternary ice-ages, the global mean air temperature went down as low as 10 degrees C. The increase of mean air temperature, to the present 15 degrees C, has been due to a relative quiescence of surface volcanism. Earth expansion has continued unabated, with new crust forming via the volcanism of the mid-oceanic construction ridges. Now, with North Pacific crustal expansion largely frustrated (with the Forex plate jammed under North America's west coast), surface volcanism is increasing. We may now expect a progressive reduction of mean air temperature.


2761
As the volcanic dust and aerosol deinsolation-layer is at a stratosphere height of approximately 15-30 kilometres, and as atmospheric carbon dioxide is below this level, the volcanic layer occludes part of the solar energy before it reaches the carbon dioxide. Thus, volcanism tends to reduce and pre-empt the Greenhouse mechanism.


2762
As Greenhouse warming helps to abate the predominant volcanic cooling effect, we should perhaps be supportive of carbon dioxide and methane emissions, rather than otherwise.


2763
We should try to preserve the ozone layer, not for its cooling effect, but for its role in the abatement of harmful ultra-violet radiation.


2764
Volcanism prolongs life, by providing a cool biosphere which is layered between an Earth which is heating up and an upper atmosphere which is becoming warmer.


2765
In the case of Venus, we know that its atmosphere is composed of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and a water/ sulphuric acid vapour. The surface waters of Venus probably boiled and vaporised, when the core-explosion heat surfaced amid great volcanism. The volcanism produced the sulphur dioxide which combined with water vapour under the effects of UV rays at high altitudes. Carbon was probably leached from surface rocks by the hot steamy atmosphere. Volcanism was the primary means and mechanism by which heat was delivered from the exploding core, via the mantle, to the Venusian surface and biosphere.


2766
Earth's biosphere will be cool and livable until the arrival of massive heat from the mantle, via volcanism.


2767
If we try to abate the Greenhouse, all we will accomplish is to reinforce and intensify the effects of the volcanic cooling mechanism.


2768
When volcanism starts to deliver surface heat, at levels which first offset and then exceed its stratospheric deinsolation effect, then the Greenhouse will add a further heating effect ... but the biosphere will be no longer livable at that stage, so why should we worry about the Greenhouse?


2769
People are right in thinking that we are going to have global warming but, before it comes, we are in for several years of volcanism-induced cooling.


2770
The network shows clearly that we will waste time and resources if we try to save the environment. The major forces, which are shortening the remainder-time of the human race, are irreversible.


2771
Even with regard to CFC's, their deleterious effect on the ozone layer is probably small relative to the effect of volcanic chlorine emissions ... and we can't do anything to stop volcanoes from belching out chlorine gas.


2772
Most people know instinctively that the environment is there for us to use and that to try to conserve it and restore it would be pointless. That is why the Green movement doesn't get more support.


2773
From about the years 2005 to 2010, Antarctica will become a much sought after place of habitation, as volcanism increases and the biosphere heats up. Antarctica will have low volcanism (apart from Erebus) and the least earthquakes, and will be the coolest land on Earth.


2774
The mind is not of time-space and has no temperature ... but, while manifesting as human creative intelligence, it needs a temperate environment ... and hence its creation of a temperate biosphere.


2775
Volcanic chlorine emissions are mostly in the form of hydrogen chloride which, having an affinity for water, is absorbed by the water vapour of the lower atmosphere. It is noteworthy that volcanic chlorine emissions seldom rise above 5 to 6 kilometres height ... and this is well short of the bottom of the ozone layer, which is at the 15-50 kilometres of altitude.


2776
The effects of volcanism on climate are far greater than the effects of man-induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. There is no point in introducing costly controls of the latter while the former major factor continues to predominate.


2777
As the deinsolating volcanic ash and sulphur layer is at much greater altitude than the Greenhouse carbon dioxide and methane layer, the former layer's cooling effect dominates over the latter layer's heating effect.


2778
Carbon dioxide is 1½ times as heavy as air, and it remains in the lower atmosphere. By contrast, the volcanic ash and sulphur layer is at 15-30 kilometres altitude.


2779
The amount of carbon dioxide in atmosphere is estimated at 2,000 billion tonnes ... that is, at about .033% of the total weight of the atmosphere.


2780
The onset of the El Niño southern oscillation is signalled by high pre5sure over Darwin and low pressure over Tahiti. The opposite pressure conditions are known as La Niña. El Niño and La Niña conditions have manifested in the following years:

El Niño Average La Niña
1970 1975 1971
1973 1979 1972
1977 1980 1974
1978 1981 1976
1982 1984 1988
1983 1985 1989
1987 1986
1991 1990
1992
1993


2781
When El Niño conditions prevail, New Zealand has cooler, drier weather than normal. More cold air-flows come from the west and south-west, with more storms and gales. South-west fronts come further north than normal. The water is too cold for the fronts to pick up much moisture.


2782
In February 1993, surface sea temperatures off New Zealand ranged from about 10C in the south to 19C in the north ... about 2-3C lower than normal.


2783
El Niño conditions signal warm global weather but cool temperatures for New Zealand.


2784
The higher into the stratosphere volcanic veil matter is thrown, the longer the veil will last. The reference here is to very fine particles of volcanic dust and to tiny aerosols of sulphurous acid, in water-vapour. At 15-30 kilometres altitude, conditions are stable and rainless ... and the veil is relatively long-lasting. The sulphurous aerosols are probably the most significant deinsolating factor.


2785
El Niño brings high pressures and high temperatures to South and East of Australia. Prevailing winds and air pressure patterns cause warm air to rush seawards from the desert-outback, resulting in heat-waves in coastal regions, as well as inland.


2786
When La Niña is operating, it causes droughts in the American mid-west and floods in Bangladesh.


2787
With a national average temperature of 11.7C, 1992 was New Zealand's coldest year since 1945 ... 0.8C below average.


2788
It can take up to six months for an eruption like Pinatubo to make itself felt as far south as New Zealand, as the stratospheric veil spreads towards the poles.


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