Predictions For 1991
General Predictions For 1991
- The US/UN Gulf action achieves its aims.
- The New York share market fluctuates and then crashes.
- The US recession deepens into depression.
- Financially, the US is no longer able to sustain a superpower role. 1991 marks the end of the super-power era.
- City real estate values fall worldwide.
- Many bank failures, worldwide, include failures in Japan and USA.
- The financial shake-out in Japan results in a large reduction of Japanese share and property values.
- The UK moves further, structurally, into the European Community, and the British Commonwealth of nations becomes history.
- In the USSR, the revolt of the States accelerates; States refuse to supply troops, for enforcement action against the States; the central government becomes virtually powerless; anarchy spreads, as some States become ungovernable.
- Global warming causes droughts, floods, erosion, heatwaves, crop failures and pest infestations.
- Earthquake activity increases worldwide but, in NZ, quakes are unlikely to exceed the lower limit of destructiveness.
- Quakes will occur along the east-Asia coast, from Japan to Indonesia, and also in the Caucasus, Iran, Central Asia and Africa.
- Lifting and buckling will occur along the west coasts of the Americas.
- Quakes occur in Australia, as the Australian plate shows signs of rifting.
- There will be indications that the Earth's crust, itself, is warming up.
- The 'Green' movement loses ground: practical economic considerations are accorded higher priority than environmental protection.
- Israel loses some US support and has increased exposure to PLO/Arab pressure.
- The US seeks to reduce its Middle East involvement.
- Trade protectionism spreads worldwide.
- Unemployment increases worldwide.
- Famine, disease and anarchy increase in the third world.
- Aids spreads worldwide.
- Most banks refuse to finance third-world countries: banks retreat from all forms of risk-taking.
- Laws and controls, of all kinds, are harder to enforce: lawlessness and crime continues to increase.
- The worldwide trend to 'Claytons' government continues. Governments become less and less effective ... being unable to cope with rapid change, major social problems and natural disasters.
- Anarchy replaces communism, as the main threat to democracy.
- Social liberalisation gains momentum and abortion is increasingly seen as a woman's right.
- Hog-tied by the Democrat Congress majority, the Bush administration continues to be ineffective concerning US internal affairs.
- The negative effects of the US/UN Gulf intervention outweigh positive gains.
- International alliances become less durable as each country becomes pre-occupied with its own internal problems.
N.Z. Predictions For 1991
- National's attack on social welfare is seen as an attack on the average family and on the community itself. The public will pressure for the restoration of benefits to previous levels.
- Public opinion builds against flow of NZ capital overseas. 'Use NZ capital to create NZ jobs!', will be the cry.
- The public recognise that 'laissez-faire' policies benefit only the more wealthy 20% ... and that the majority need some form of protection,
- An increasing number of National MP's will pressure the Government to move from 'laissez-faire' to 'hands-on' management policies ... and for a surtax on imports, or on purchases of foreign exchange.
- We finally realise that we cannot rely on GATT to provide a fair-trade 'umbrella', and that we have to protect our own interests.
- NZ's terms of trade move adversely.
- NZ's export income drops 15% (1991/1990).
- The NZ Government has increasing difficulty in raising offshore loans.
- NZ enters a period of negative economic growth.
- The NZ dollar will decrease in value.
- Unemployment will increase from 200,000 to 280,000 by the end of 1991.
- The number of business failures will increase.
- Urban commercial properties will drop in value.
- Investors continue to move out of shares and real estate, and into term bank deposits and Government stocks.
- Relations between NZ and USA continue to improve.
- There will be less appeasement and more pragmatism in respect of Maori claims and aspirations.
- In sports, New Zealanders will continue to excel.
- As living conditions deteriorate overseas, more and more people apply for NZ entry permits.
- More New Zealanders develop non-economic interests and pastimes ... realising that, as to quality of life, we are one of the most favoured nations.
- Shared adversity will bring out some of our best qualities.
- All things considered, the NZ community will fare better than most communities overseas.