Predictions For 1996
1996 Predictions - New Zealand
- New Zealand's rolling wave of success will continue. In calendar 1996, the economy will grow by 5%, and our fiscal and international credit positions will be strong.
- In 1996, most New Zealanders will reject political extremism, impractical idealism, and 'funny-money' policies: they will retain and build on what they have worked so hard for.
- At the MMP election, over 80% of voters will not split their votes: they will support the same party on both tickets.
- Labour loyalties will re-surface at the 1996 elections, and Labour will win most of the urban seats. However, National will gain in rural and party-list seats.
- Approximate House-seating, after the first MMP election, will be:
- National - 48
- Labour - 39
- Alliance - 23
- NZ First - 10
- Total - 120
- After the election, National will be forced out of office by the other parties ... and New Zealand will have a Labour-led government.
- Labour's Michael Cullen will become Prime minister and minister of Finance.
- Under MMP, we will have 'issue by issue' voting in the House ... and party lines will be less clearly defined.
- The MMP regime will see a reemergence of the Michael Joseph Savage ethos, tempered with financial pragmatism.
- Under MMP, there will be increased government expenditure in respect of welfare, superannuation, health, and education. Fiscal surpluses will continue, at a lower level.
- In calendar 1996, export earnings of the manufacturing, dairy, timber, tourism, fishing, and general sectors will be buoyant. Strongly supported by greater energy self-sufficiency, the NZ economy will be soundly stanced for further improvement.
- Successful general sector exports will include engineering services, communications, computer software, banking services, and bio-chemical products. Many promising new exports will be developed in 1996.
- Export earnings will rise by 7% in calendar 1996 ... being a 3% volume gain, and a 4% unit-value gain. Terms of trade will move favourably to New Zealand.
- During calendar 1996, salaries and wages will increase by an average of 6%.
- During calendar 1996, headline inflation will average 4% p.a. ... and the 90-day bill interest rate will vary in the 8%-9% p.a. range.
- Official economic statistics will be less reliable, due to unreported black/grey market transactions, including undeclared tourism and other export earnings.
- The building and construction industry will have a busy year: construction costs and prices will rise by 6%-7% during 1996.
- In 1996, the overall rate of unemployment will remain close to 6% ... but unemployment will continue to be a major problem for the Maori and Islander populations.
- The great majority of New Zealanders will realise that 'one law for all, based on one political sovereignty' is plain common sense ... and that the alternative is anarchy.
- During 1996, communists will support multi-sovereignty. Maori rights activists will be convenient tools of communism.
- Most New Zealanders will want to get on with living as one nation, and there will be increasing animus against those who are bent on creating discord.
- Although many countries will circumvent GATT, New Zealand exporters will gain valuable concessions.
- With positive marketing initiatives and improving access, our exports to Asia will increase markedly in 1996. Japanese markets will be more open to our goods.
- Although there will be an unsettled 'election-jitters' period, the NZ$ will be generally firm against overseas currencies. For most exporters, rising overseas prices will more than offset exchange movements.
- With warm moist airflows from north, meeting cold airflows from south, nearly all parts of NZ will have above-average rainfall in 1996.
- With more waves of cold polar fronts moving on to New Zealand from the south-west, we will experience some very low winter temperatures.
- Heavy rains and flooding will cause erosion and landslides in many parts of New Zealand. Extended areas will become water-saturated and unstable ... and vulnerable to earthquakes. The costs of road maintenance will rise sharply.
- High-country snowfalls and icing will increase ... and glaciers will continue to advance. We will have a good 1996 skiing season.
- Hydro-lakes and water-tables will be at very good levels for 1996, and for several years ahead.
- Many growers will be at risk from unseasonal frosts, hail, storms, high winds, heavy rain, and floods. Increased water-logging will reduce production in some areas.
- Eruptions will continue at Ruapehu and White Island ... and there will be earthquakes in many parts of New Zealand, but all will be less than Richter 7, and non life-threatening.
- During spring and early summer, the drifting Antarctic ozone hole will expose areas in it's path to dangerous UV solar radiation. Immunity to diseases will be reduced, and much illness will be UV related.
- There will be some good profit opportunities in shares, as a number of large investors seek key take-overs.
- Average real estate prices will be trending upwards, but harsher winters will adversely affect prices in some parts of the country.
- The trend to convert farming land, from sheep and beef to dairying and forestry, will continue in 1996 ... and sheep and beef cattle numbers will continue to decline. There will be keen demand for dairy land.
- In 1996, there will be danger signs that the NZ judicial system is faltering ... and that there is a need for more effective coordination between police, judiciary, prisons, and the funding authorities.
- There will be growing resentment that the business roundtable tries to exercise too much influence in the country's affairs.
- More than ever, people will turn away from the complicated double-talk of experts ... and they will rely on their own practical common sense.
- With approximately 10% of our people needing mental counselling or treatment, mental health services will be seen as woefully inadequate and will be accorded higher priority in 1996.
- The numbers of would-be immigrants will increase, and we will be more selective with entry permits.
- There will be a spate of serious rail accidents in 1996.
- With an increase in serious preventable accidents, there will be a public demand for improved preventive measures in respect of rail, road, ship and air safety.
- Average spending on gambling will increase and will become a matter of public concern.
- New Zealand will continue its lead-role in the growing world anti-nuclear movement.
- The huge gap, between the UK pro-nuclear and the NZ anti-nuclear positions, will result in increased support for a New Zealand republic.
- Across the entire sports spectrum (including the Olympics) our sports people will excel in 1996. Professionalism in sport will increase rapidly.
1996 Predictions - General
- With core-heat coming closer to the surface, there will be more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes: 1996 will be a traumatic earth-year.
- The 1996 global weather scene will be one of temperature extremes, extensive flooding, unseasonal frost and hail, crop failures, droughts, storms and hurricanes.
- There will be an increased number of volcanic eruptions, particularly in the Pacific zone ... and there will be earthquakes, with buckling and lifting, around the Pacific rim, and in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and southern Europe.
- Volcanic emissions will intensify the deinsolation layer, and upper stratosphere will be warmer ... and the altitudinal heat-sink will be weaker. After an initial oven effect, warm air will move latitudinally. The N-S/S-N airflows will increase, and the E-W/W-E airflows will decrease.
- In many countries, there will be warmer summers and colder winters ... and greater rainfalls, snowfalls, flooding, erosion and glaciation.
- The cooling effects of volcanism will be felt mainly in mid-latitude countries, such as New Zealand, where cold airflows from south will dominate over warm airflows from north.
- Most lake-levels will rise, and land-waters generally will increase.
- Global sea-levels will fall a few centimetres in 1996, and will continue to fall.
- Antarctic icebergs will reach lower latitudes.
- There will be a global increase of social entropy in 1996. Justice, law, order, and social constraints will decline: violence and crime will increase ... and all forms of authority will weaken.
- The processes of justice will continue to lose respect in 1996, and will become more of a cynical game.
- Detonations of nuclear weapons, and radiation leakages (from power plants and nuclear waste) will cause widespread public alarm and demonstrations in 1996.
- Increasingly, nuclear radiation will be seen as a dire threat to the survival of the human race. The anti-nuclear movement will develop strongly, worldwide.
- Secret nuclear research and development will be seen as antidemocratic ... and a widening rift will develop between nuclear governments and the people they purport to represent.
- Nucleocracies (countries dominated by the dictates of nuclear weaponry and nuclear power) will become increasingly unpopular in 1996.
- The average world per capita income level will cease to rise and will peak-out in 1996 ... and the rate of world population increase will slow to 1.3% p.a.
- The world of 1996 will be without an effective super-power, as a divided and disoriented USA gropes and stumbles from one confused response to another.
- Spending cuts, imposed by Congress, will tend to restrict the growth of the US economy.
- Increasingly, the aggression of Americans will turn inwards ... and, in 1996, us crime and violence will reach new highs.
- Religious fundamentalism will increase globally and, in the USA, the 'Nation of Islam' movement will gain momentum.
- The USA will regret it's free trade agreement with Mexico, and it's financial support of that country ... and the inflow of Mexican migrants will continue to be a major problem.
- The sporadic cross-fire, re USA-Japan trade, will continue, without benefit to either country.
- The United Nations will continue to lose respect ... and it's backers will increasingly be seen as naive.
- World oil prices will remain low in 1996.
- The rice crops of Japan, Korea and northern China will be adversely affected by unfavourable climatic conditions.
- Due to crop failures, the world prices of rice, and a number of other food staples, will rise.
- Japan will experience large earthquakes and other natural disasters in 1996.
- In 1996, Japanese economic growth will be low, and the level of Japanese overseas investment will continue to decline.
- In spite of setbacks, the Asian economic region will continue to outperform the American and European regions.
- Global air safety will be a concern, as the number of fatal air crashes increases.
- Ozone depletion will result in increased exposure to solar UV rays, which will downgrade immune systems generally. The associated incidence of cancer, and of viral and bacterial infections, will increase in 1996.
- In 1996, the news media will play an increasingly important role, in not only focusing our attention but also in creating our realities.
- With many shifts of power and allegiances taking place, strategic options will need to be kept open and flexible in 1996.