Predictions For 1997
1997 Predictions - New Zealand
- Generally, business expectations and job prospects will be good in 1997.
- It will be apparent that high interest rates are failing to prevent the inflation of credit and prices ... and that they are the cause of the huge investment inflows.
- It will be apparent that high interest rates have caused the NZ$ to rise, and that they are continuing to harm our exports.
- The large inflow of funds from overseas will continue to force interest rates down, and Don Brash will be deprived of his high-interest weapon. It will be seen that the Reserve Bank's high-interest policy has failed.
- There will be a shift of economic initiatives away from the Reserve Bank, which will be required to concentrate on non-political central bank functions. The Reserve Bank Act will be amended accordingly.
- The tight spending policy of government, which has been the main factor in controlling inflation, will be loosened under MMP, and CPI inflation will rise to 4.5% in 1997.
- Forward currency dealings, on the expectation of a rising NZ$, will support the dollar's upward movement in 1997.
- Although interest rates will be falling, there will be a perception overseas that the NZ$ is still undervalued.
- The inflow of foreign funds will continue, but will gradually ease off. The NZ$ will rise to reach US73¢ by the end of 1997.
- Mortgage interest rates will drop a further 1% in 1997.
- A major inflationary factor will be a 15% p.a. growth in private sector credit (which includes consumer credit and mortgage borrowing).
- During 1997, NZ will have good export prices overseas for dairy products, forestry products, lamb and fish. Tourism receipts will be higher. It will be a good year for exports generally, in spite of the rising NZ dollar.
- We will excel in new enterprises which have high inputs of creative intelligence and relatively low inputs of capital.
- The services sector of the economy will show very good growth. Tourism, air services, film-making, computer software, communications, banking, consultancy, engineering (design and supervision) ... these and other services, will make significant gains in export earnings.
- Our progressive energy/oil industry will increase our savings of overseas currency.
- Gaining ever greater acceptance, our exports to Asia will show very good growth.
- As the world supply of fish will fall short of world demand, rising prices will benefit our export fish industry.
- 1997 will be a big year for the NZ film industry.
- On national average, real estate prices will rise by 6% in 1997 .
- Under MMP, the down-pressure on remuneration will be eased. Average salaries and wages, will rise by 5%-6% during 1997.
- There will be a further increase of people engaged on formal employment contracts, and also of people engaged part-time.
- Amendments to employment legislation will result in more protection for employees, particularly low-paid workers.
- Average unemployment will be in the 6.0%-6.5% range.
- GST will remain, and Alliance's financial transactions tax proposals will be seen as unpractical.
- The dollar value of retail sales, nationally, will increase by 6% in calendar 1997.
- Real GNP and GDP will grow by 3.5% in calendar 1997.
- New Zealand is a nation of 'fiddlers' and, in 1997, grey and black market dealings will continue to grow ... and official economic statistics will become less complete and more unreliable. The actual growth of the economy will be higher than shown by official figures.
- In a situation where a 13% minority has hi-jacked the government, most New Zealanders will feel outraged at being manipulated by the shrewd Winston Peters.
- There will be increasing opposition within Parliament, amounting to a democratic revolt against Peters.
- In order to bring down what is seen as an undemocratic government, there will be more filibustering and obstructionist tactics employed by opposition parties.
- Progressively, more National back-benchers will refuse to support Peters, and this will result in a general election within 18 months.
- After the general election, there will be closer cooperation between Labour and National, to prevent further domination by minor parties.
- During 1997, support for NZ First and National will decrease, and support for Labour will increase.
- With most New Zealanders becoming centrist in their views, political parties of the extreme left and right will be increasingly marginalised.
- On most issues, ACT will find itself in opposition to the coalition government.
- Labour will tend to become more centrist and will distance itself from the Alliance on matters of important policy.
- Female and family interests will be more actively represented in the new parliament.
- There will be substantial increases of government spending on health and welfare.
- Asset testing will be abolished in respect of rest-home care of the aged.
- Higher government funding of tertiary education will ease the upward pressure on student fees.
- At schools and universities, there will be a need to teach students how to think creatively.
- Government will give more support to the promotion of local tourism, as a priority path to regional prosperity.
- Business interests will attempt to exercise undue political influence ... but the MMP Parliament will not stand for it.
- With colder winters, support for the global warming theory will weaken.
- As the case for global warming loses credence, the thrust for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions will lose momentum.
- NZ will experience a very cold winter in 1997, particularly in the South Island and the centre of the North Island.
- In 1997, most parts of NZ will have higher rainfall and more storms, flooding and erosion.
- Flood-water run-off and drainage will be a major problem in many areas. Flooding lakes will make some lake-shore roads impassable.
- Many bridges will be washed out, and large slips will come down over roads and railways.
- Many civil defence services will be severely tested.
- Good hydro-lake levels will ensure a steady supply of electricity.
- There will be growing realisation that UV exposure (due to ozone depletion) reduces our immunity, not only to melanoma, but to diseases generally.
- The Regional Health Authorities (RHA's) will be dispensed with, and their responsibilities will be taken over by the Ministry of Health.
- Under MMP, there will be increasing confidence in the public health services. Private institutions will continue to price themselves out of medical care. In 1997, public health will start to gain against private.
- Although funding will increase, mental health administration will continue to be confused, and lacking in efficiency and effectiveness.
- By self-seeking disregard of the spirit of the law, some lawyers will weaken the effectiveness and equity of New Zealand's legal system.
- Further lengthening of court-case queues will add to the general deterioration of law and order.
- The police will see some laws as putting them in a 'can't win' situation. Legislation will be reviewed to assist law enforcement.
- The law will be amended to provide for majority jury verdicts.
- Reduced electorate representation will result in an enhanced leadership role for local mayors.
- In 1997, NZ will enjoy success in rugby, cricket, yachting, golf, women's netball, men's softball, motor cycling, and in sports generally. The horse-racing industry will show improvement.
- An all-party grouping of Maori members will exercise considerable influence within the 1997 Parliament.
- The settlement of Maori grievances will have a positive psychological effect on the whole country.
- Overseas, our qualities will be seen to include resourcefulness, creativity, fairness, caring and integrity. In these, and with regard to environment, health, sports, education and social services, New Zealand will lead the world as to quality of life in 1997.
1997 Predictions - General
- Due to social entropy, all forms of authority will weaken, and lawlessness will increase, globally.
- There will be an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions and quakes, particularly around the Pacific 'rim of fire' and at Hawaii. There will also be large quakes in China, the Middle East, N.W.Africa, and Southern Europe.
- There will be greater rainfall and flooding in many parts of the world ... and mean global temperature will edge downwards.
- Greater N-S/S-N airflows will reduce the difference between the temperatures of high and low latitudes.
- The Gulf Stream current will flow a little further south, bringing a very cold winter to the United Kingdom.
- There is good news for Australia, where the average rainfall will increase gradually from now on ... bringing improving farm returns and overall economic gains.
- Due to poor harvests in many countries, grain supplies will fall short of market needs, and global grain prices will rise. The rice price will increase markedly.
- In New Zealand, there will be volcanic activity at Ruapehu and White Island, and a number of quakes ... but none above Richter 7.
- 'Galloping' globally to wherever he can 'ginger up' home votes, Bill Clinton will be seen as an opportunistic 'rhinestone cowboy'.
- The free airing of views, under MMP, will result in changes to our foreign policies, and more independence.
- Becoming more independent and more internationally minded and less paranoid, New Zealanders will move away from old military alliances.
- Terrorism, aimed at getting the US military out of the Persian Gulf zone, will increase in 1997.
- During 1997, there will be significant downward adjustments of US share prices ... and these movements will affect the NZ sharemarket.
- The number of fatal air accidents will be high, globally, in 1997 .
- Globally, accident insurance companies will face higher risks and payouts in 1997.
- The political hand-over, of Hong Kong to China, will be accomplished sensibly and with only minor incidents.
- Labour will have a landslide victory over the conservatives at the UK general election.
- There will be warfare in Africa, the Middle East, Central America, and the Caucasus ... but there will be no conflict between the major powers.
- As traps for the unwary will abound in 1997, practical common sense will prove to be extremely valuable. Professional opinions will often be unsound.
- News will, more and more, be presented as a kind of entertainment.
- Social entropy will continue to cause the mergence of fact with fiction, and right with wrong.
- Things hard to put up with in 1997 will include:
- Too many politicians.
- Too many ads on TV.
- Too many bad LBW cricket decisions.