Predictions For 1998
- In 1998, there will be a slowing of the rate of growth of the global economy and a slowing of the world population increase.
- Globally, we are moving into a period wherein natural disasters will increase in numbers and severity.
- From now on, the mean temperature of mid-latitude countries will fall progressively.
- New Zealand will be better placed than most countries to cope with future conditions. For New Zealanders, the general outlook is positive.
- We are moving into a long period of global food shortages and access to overseas markets for our food products will be improving.
- Within a few years, NZ will be able to protect its local industries without risking loss of export food markets.
- The indications are that we should call a halt to reductions of our import tariffs.
- The domination of New Zealand's government by a party (NZ First), which has only 3% support, will be seen by most as undemocratic and intolerable.
- There will be mounting public disapproval and outcry against the Coalition government, leading to a general election in 1998.
- There will be a marked swing to the centre. Labour will be seen as holding the middle ground, while National will be seen as right-wing.
- In 1998, over 54% of voters will identify with Labour. National will be seen as the big-business' and farmers' party.
- Rapid change and world events will 'call the shots' in 1998. Voters will sense this, and they will elect MPs on their basic stance and not on any fancy promises.
- Labour will gain a landslide victory at a 1998 election, and will have 65 seats in the new parliament ... a comfortable outright majority.
- National and NZ First will both suffer reverses at the 1998 general election. Voters will make it plain that they want open democratic government, and that they do not want secretly contrived coalition agreements.
- Voter dissatisfaction with the MMP performance of minor parties will see their combined seat numbers fall from the present 39 to less than half that number. NZ First and Alliance will be big losers ... and most of the seats they lose will go to Labour.
- The majority of Maori voters will support Labour.
- The incoming Labour government will actively promote and protect local industries and employment.
- The need for new product development and job creation will be major challenges for New Zealand in 1998.
- Plans for the bulk funding of education will be cancelled by the incoming government.
- When the newly elected parliament settles down, MMP will be seen to work satisfactorily.
- Globally, in 1998, rainstorms and extensive flooding will cause major problems ... but there will also be droughts, food shortages, fires, eruptions, large quakes, and insect and pest infestations.
- The stratospheric layer of volcanic emissions will become warmer, reducing the altitudinal heat-sink and enhancing the oven-effect which powers the El Niño water-pump system. (Note: The volcanism layer, at 15-30 kilometres altitude, consists mainly of volcanic emissions such as sulphurous aerosols and fine ash particles).
- Although causing some high temperatures, El Niño will have a long-term cooling effect. By evaporation, El Niño will pump up tropical ocean-waters and will dump deluges on land. It will increase global rainfall and, by adding to land-waters and cloud-cover, it will increase the albedo index and will reduce ground-heat. (Note: The albedo index indicates how much solar heat is reflected back into space).
- El Niño will generate strong N-S/S-N wind-flows which will carry heavy rains over a wider latitudinal range ... causing widespread flooding; rising lake, river and aquifer levels; soil water-logging; and erosion.
- The El Niño 'pump and dump' effect will suck some areas drought-dry ... but most parts of the world will receive greater annual rainfall.
- There will be huge floods in China, India, Europe, USA, and elsewhere.
- Polar ozone depletion, due to volcanic sulphur and chlorine emissions, will continue to modify polar temperatures ... and there will be more breakaway ice.
- The intensified El Niño will send strong N-S tropical rain-bearing storm-systems to NZ, bringing torrential downpours on to the north and north-eastern parts of the North Island.
- There will be greater mixing of atmospheric conditions as between latitudes ... and this will bring more polar storm-systems from the south-west on to New Zealand.
- Flooding, water-logging, solifluxion and erosion will be severe in many parts of New Zealand, with many slips and much road and rail damage. The emergency services will be hard put to cope with demands.
- Many urban storm-water drainage systems will fail to cope in 1998.
- Rainfall will be above average in most parts of New Zealand ... and strong winds will be more frequent.
- Most NZ ground temperatures will be lower than average in 1998.
- Strong winds and unseasonal hail and frost will cause problems for many grain, fruit and produce growers.
- There will be increasing storm-exposure risks at Clifford Bay, and this will favour Picton's retention of the TRANZ RAIL ferry service.
- There will be growing realisation that El Niño and climate change are due to natural causes and not to man-created Greenhouse gases.
- The lobby against carbon dioxide emissions will lose credence and momentum in 1998.
- New Zealand will need to plan for an El Niño regime which will intensify year by year in future.
- The Resource Management Act will be seen as lacking in realism and practicality ... and in need of revision.
- There will be a growing realisation that New Zealanders are over-legislated ... and that the 'let's pass an Act to fix it' syndrome won't work in the 21st century. We have to learn to live with increasing social entropy, and excessive legislation will only make laws generally less effective.
- The NZ economy will advance by 2.5% in real terms in 1998. The currently undervalued NZ$ will appreciate through most of 1998; the 90-day interest rate will vary in the 7.5%-8.5% range; the unemployment rate will be in the 7.0%-7.5% range; and the rate of CPI inflation will be 2.0%.
- On average, NZ salaries will rise by 5%, whereas wages will rise by 3%.
- The dollar value of retail sales, nationally, will increase by 5% ... and the total amount of consumer credit will rise by 12% in 1998.
- Profitable NZ areas for investment in 1998 will include energy (all categories); biomolecular engineering and biochemistry; telecommunications; creative new products; and exports for niche markets. Apart from these areas, the NZ sharemarket will be mostly steady and unspectacular during 1998. Overseas, USA shares will fluctuate and will trend lower ... and the Far East sharemarkets will recover a part of their lost ground.
- Biomolecular engineering (genetic and non-genetic) will make significant progress overseas and in New Zealand.
- Most of our East-Asia trading partners will show good economic recovery in 1998.
- As to exports, the dairy industry will produce steady and reliable returns; forestry products will improve; most prices of wool will firm; overseas demand for our wines will be good; the energy sector will improve it's earnings; fish exports (volumes and prices) will improve; demand for meat will be fairly static; film industry export earnings will be good; banking, telecommunications, computer software and professional services will make valuable contributions; and tourism will return to positive growth. Total export income will increase by 4% in NZ$ terms.
- On national average, real estate prices will rise by 3% in 1998. Demand for most rural land will be weak.
- New Zealanders will continue to over-invest in retail businesses ... resulting in a number of retail failures.
- In this laissez-faire and telecommunications age, more and more transactions are not being included in the official economic statistics. Also, grey and black market transactions are not included. Official statistics will only show part of the real picture in 1998 ... and NZ's economic performance will be better than that shown by the official figures.
- When the increase in value of NZ-owned overseas assets is taken into account, the 1998 balance of international transactions will be more favourable than indicated by official published figures.
- In the oil and gas industry, discovery of further reserves, and increased output, will boost NZ earnings/savings of foreign currency.
- Poor grain harvests in some countries will push up the price of grains, particularly rice. The average global prices of most foodstuffs will rise in 1998.
- Our mental health services will continue to suffer from inadequate planning, organisation, funding, and management.
- The police will be left in an almost impossible situation. They will be expected to resolve difficulties re increasing violence, gangs, white-collar crime, arson, burglaries, marijuana, hard drugs, youth crime, bail offenders, and mentally deranged offenders ... and often within an unclear legal situation, and all without adequate funding and staffing.
- Parliament will continue to evade some needed criminal-law changes, due to members' fear of losing votes.
- Generally, public respect for law will decline and law-abidance will decline.
- While in accordance with law, some 1998 court judgements will not accord with public conceptions of common sense, practicality and fairness.
- The problem of inadequate prison facilities will become more critical in 1998.
- With harmful UV exposure, due to ozone depletion, the number and incidence of sicknesses will increase. It will be recognised that excessive UV exposure reduces our disease immunity generally.
- The 'friend or foe' American approach to foreign policy will be seen as too simplistic and as a threat to world peace.
- There will be armed conflict in the Middle East and in Africa.
- The incoming Labour Government will encourage overseas investment in NZ, provided that it creates jobs. A selective immigration policy will also be geared to job creation.
- The adequacy of railways preventive maintenance will be questioned in 1998.
- As core-heat comes closer to the surface, there will be an upsurge of volcanism and more earthquakes in 1998. The Pacific zone will be most affected, with increased activity in Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Eastern Siberia, Hawaii, California, Central America, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile.
- Other areas of notable seismic activity will include China, Iran, the Caspian area, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Suez area, Southern Europe, and the West Indies.
- In New Zealand, there will be volcanic activity at Ruapehu and White Island, and a number of quakes elsewhere ... but none over Richter 7.
- In 1998, there will be a need for New Zealand to keep out of international alliances, and to retain full freedom of decision and action. When other people make mistakes, we should avoid having to share the adverse consequences.
- Arson, burglary, vandalism and gang problems will encourage real-estate developers to promote secure enclaves.
- The number of fatal air accidents will be high globally, in 1998.
- 1998 will be a very good year for sports, with excellent performances at the Commonwealth Games and excellent results in rugby, golf, yachting, equestrian, swimming, field events, netball, softball, hockey, motor cycling, horse racing, and even cricket.