Predictions For 1999
- 1999 will be a year of global disasters. Costly in lives and material losses, natural disasters will tend to overshadow world events in 1999.
- The El Niño-La Nina 'pump and dump' mechanism will result in heavy rains and a massive transfer of water from oceans to lands. The floods of 1999 will be greater than those of 1998 ... and there will again be some droughts in drought-prone areas.
- The following areas will become wetter in 1999:South-East, Central and Northern Asia; Southern and Coastal China; Northern Europe; France; Greece; Switzerland; Austria; the Balkans; Turkey; Japan; most of India, South America, USA, Canada and Australia; Central America; Central Africa; Madagascar; and New Zealand (except for Eastern areas south of latitude 37).
- In 1999, severe storms will be more frequent in New Zealand. There will be more accidents (land, sea and air), and a number of power failures.
- Record high NZ winds will be generated by strong tropical cyclones from the north: we will also experience strong southerlies.
- In 1999, NZ will experience droughts in some Eastern areas ... and heavy rains, flooding and erosion in many parts of the country. There will be a significant increase of land-waters, in lakes, rivers, soils and aquifers.
- There will be heavier snowfalls in the South Island high lands ... and West Coast glacier extensions will accelerate.
- Large slips will come down on many roads and gorges. Many hillside and waterside house properties will be exposed to erosion.
- Many urban areas will be flooded, as storm-water drainage fails to cope.
- Some rail sections will be affected by slips. Rail maintenance costs will rise sharply, and rail accidents will increase.
- Many growers will be adversely affected by unseasonal weather in 1999.
- With core-heat coming closer to the surface, there will be more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes globally. There will be eruptions in Iceland, Kamchatka, Philippines, Indonesia, Micronesia, Mexico, West Indies, Colombia, and Chile.
- There will be earthquakes, in excess of Richter 6, in Algeria, Italy, Turkey, Caucasus, Iran, Pakistan, India, China, Japan, Philippines, Alaska, California, Mexico, Central America, Peru and Chile.
- There will be some uplifting of North Island's East Coast, and increased seismic and volcanic activity on a line from Ruapehu/Taupo to White Island ... and some movement along the South Island alpine fault ... but NZ will not experience quakes above Richter 7 in 1999. Increased geothermal activity in the Rotorua area will cause concern.
- In 1999 and future years, Greenhouse gases will have very little influence on global climate, which is now locked into a long-term cooling sequence.
- In 1999, the global economy will slow to a real growth of only 1% p.a. Worldwide, basic subsistence economic activity will cushion the financial and manufacturing recession.
- In 1999, Russia will experience hyperinflation and collapse of the rouble ... and will move towards a military-backed dictatorship of the left.
- The USA share market will suffer a large reverse during 1999. Most share markets globally will lose value ... and share investments generally will become less popular. Most commodity prices will fall.
- Major currency speculation will continue to destabilise the world economy.
- Automation and computerisation will continue to cause job losses, with a depressive economic effect.
- Adverse conditions will force most economies into a defensive, protectionist stance. Economic imperatives will overrule GATT. There will be a negative effect on world trade ... and many international debts will be unpaid. Free trade will be seen as a 'pipe dream'.
- In 1999, NZ's net growth of GNP will be 1.0%; unemployment will rise to 8.8%; CPI inflation will be close to zero; the NZ$ will vary in the US50¢-US574¢ range; and there will be little change in wage and salary levels.
- As NZ moves into fiscal deficit and into borrowing mode, interest rates will rise, and the 90-day bill rate will reach 7% p.a. by the end of 1999.
- In a deteriorating world economy, NZ will need to become more self-sufficient in 1999 ... and need not be apologetic about it. In a pragmatic world, free-trade idealism will seem naive.
- During 1999, most New Zealanders will realise that political and economic 'hands off' policies are 'minds off' policies ... and that we have to use our intelligence to survive.
- The major economic challenge of 1999 will be to replace the present laissez-faire regime with intelligent economic management ... not with regulatory extremes, but with shrewd pro-employment policies.
- A Labour tsunami will swamp the other parties at an early 1999 general election: the seating of the new parliament will be:
- Labour - 65
- National - 35
- Alliance - 9
- ACT - 7
- NZ First - 4
- Total - 120
- The new Labour government will foster efficient local industries ... and ensuing job creation will help to stem the rise of unemployment.
- 'Buy NZ goods' will be extended to include nearly everything we can make here ... and we are a resourceful, skillful and creative nation.
- As the world enters a protectionist period, we will respond magnificently to the challenges of self-sufficiency. Essentially pioneers, we function best when we produce a large proportion of our needs locally.
- Tariff reductions, and deregulation of cooperative export marketing will be put on hold.
- The Labour government will encourage NZ ownership and management of businesses (Note: A large number of our big businesses are currently run from Australia).
- Relatively positive investment areas for 1999 include:
- High-tech export manufacturing
- Niche export marketing
- Computer software
- Bio-technology and gene therapy
- Dairy exports
- Wine exports
- Telecommunications and electronics
- Film making
The above are subject to the caveat that the sharemarket will be depressed and jittery.
- Negatively indicated investment areas for 1999 include:
- Retailing
- Managed investment funds
- City buildings
- Small-lot forestry
- Construction
- Stock & station
- For safe investment, 90-day bank term deposits are indicated (with the likelihood of an interest rise later in the year).
- The rates of tax will be increased on annual incomes in excess of $60,000.
- In 1999, rapid changes in technology will increase obsolescence, and it will often be wise to rethink proposals which entail large capital expenditures. Solutions to economic, social, scientific and engineering problems will be less capital-intensive and more intelligence-intensive.
- With the discovery and development of more oil resources, New Zealand will gain significantly in energy self-sufficiency.
- In 1999, the worsening global fish shortage will assist our export fishing industry. Foreign poaching, in NZ fisheries, will increase.
- The electoral challenge of 1999 will be to vote for MP's who have integrity and capability.
- The new Labour government will deliver good stable administration ... and the public will then view MMP in a more favourable light.
- There will be increasing realisation that, as it relies heavily on exports, New Zealand should take a neutral position re most international disputes.
- The defence establishment will continue to cry wolf, but will be unable to identify any specific threat from overseas.
- In 1999, consideration will be given to designing and building coastguard vessels, for our own needs and for export.
- A new law will ensure that party-list MP's, who resign or are expelled from their parliamentary party, will automatically lose their seats in the 14ouse.
- The trend away from private health services, in favour of public health services, will become more marked in 1999.
- In 1999, NZ medical scientists will make further significant advances in gene therapy, using oral medication.
- Gene therapy will have far reaching beneficial implications for physical and mental health ... and, within a few years, will result in large reductions to public health costs.
- During 1999, public disquiet concerning genetic science will be replaced by realisation of it's enormous potential for public good.
- As we approach the turn of the century, humanity will experience a genetic revolution. In the most significant advent of human history, our species will start to improve itself quickly by voluntary genetic adaptation, instead of slowly by evolution.
- There will be a need for greater emphasis on the sciences, particularly the biological, medical and computer sciences ... for these are the keys to our future national wealth and welfare.
- The major challenge of 1999 is to develop and use our greatest asset, namely our creative intelligence. currently, our education methods over-emphasise cramming and regurgitation. We need to learn to think more creatively and boldly.
- The maintenance of NZ justice, law and order will suffer from lack of effective coordination between law-making, police, courts, and prisons.
- In 1999, more states will gain possession of nuclear arms.
- As British pro-European policies continue to restrict entry of our goods, more New Zealanders will favour a republican constitution.
- Overtures, for an Australia-New Zealand Federation and common currency, will be rejected. New Zealanders will place a high value on their integrity as an independent nation.
- There will be strong world reaction against intervention by major powers in the internal affairs of other countries.
- The UN, Red Cross, and other relief agencies, will be unable to cope with increased world needs for aid.
- Although there will be minor conflicts in Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans, there will be no major wars in 1999.
- The world supply of oil will exceed demand in 1999, and very weak oil prices will have a depressing deflationary economic effect globally. Local petrol prices will fall further.
- Increased exposure to solar UV (due to ozone depletion and sun-spot storms) will harm immune systems and will cause an increase of cancer and other diseases in 1999. Beware of the sun.
- Experiencing increasingly heavy losses, some overseas airlines will lower their maintenance and safety standards ... and air accident fatalities will increase in 1999.
- In 1999, the very high level of female achievement in New Zealand society generally, will set an excellent example for the world to follow.
- The All Blacks will regain their ascendancy in possession play ... and they will win the World Cup.
- Our top-level cricket will continue to suffer from poor management, selection, and coaching.
- Very windy sailing conditions are predicted for the America's Cup regatta.
- Although 1999 will be a trying year, many of our best qualities will come through strongly ... and we will gain significantly as a country and as a people.